All the unknowns of a military intervention in Libya

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Yesterday’s news that two of the four Italian hostages kidnapped in Libya last July were killed probably by jihadi militants made her blood run across the country; today all we have learned with joy the successful liberation of the other two Italians kidnapped.

Libya remains a country split in two, but at the same time with a great deal of factions struggling for power with no holds barred where it is practically impossible to distinguish clearly between good and bad, between moderates and Islamists. Officially there are two Governments -one in Tripoli and a moderate Islamist in Tobruk- but whole areas are plagued by conflicts still connected to the tribal world going on without respite from 2011, the year of the fall of the Gaddafi regime.

In a context so chaotic it is evident that it will be very difficult for Italy to take the lead of the military mission against the Islamic State in North Africa assigned to it by the United Nations with the approval of the U.S. Government. It must be said that the galaxy of Islamist movements in Libya is very varied and in addition to the now infamous ISIS, there are plenty of other acronyms related to the Muslim world more radical and it’s very difficult to identify them all with clarity.

No one knows against whom the enemy we face and we don’t even know exactly what will be our allies and local contacts: the moderate Government and only recognised by the international community of Tobruk or  the Islamist Government of Tripoli?

It is not even clear how far we can trust our Western allies, France, Britain and the United States, given the great diversity of purpose and opinion on the future of the North African country. Every country has its different objectives and this could be a major hurdle for the coordination of a military mission that has as its aim the defeat of terrorism.

In conclusion we can say that Libya is going to be a very difficult terrain, where at the usual danger of terrorist groups we must add a myriad of internal divisions and unknowns that will have a huge burden in the fight against those who sow terror.

 

 

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